NAND Flash廠商持續調整供貨策略，五月上旬合約價格上漲0-12%

5月份上旬NAND Flash合約均價呈現上漲0-12%的情況。 5月上旬NAND Flash供貨商仍延續4月份“優先供貨給系統客戶”的策略，因此對記憶卡客戶的供貨量就明顯地減少；且中國市場家電下鄉政策、3G手機升級及山寨機等庫 存回補短單在5月仍持續下，NAND Flash合約均價因而得以持續小漲。近期NAND Flash市場需求的能見度仍只有一個月左右，使得一些下游客戶隨著價格漲高後，在採購態度上也變得比較保守或持觀望的態度，但在供貨商們節制2Q09供 給成長的情況下，我們預期NAND Flash合約價短期內仍可望持穩。

4月中旬過後，NAND Flash上下游業者陸續公佈今年第一季的財報數字，上游供貨商多數處於虧損的狀態，但虧損的情況和去年第四季相比已有明顯的改善；下游的手機、數字相機 業者今年第一季的出貨量都面臨近年來QoQ和YoY表現最差的情況，然而按過去這些應用每年各季的出貨情況觀察，第二季的出貨量都會較第一季出現成長的情 況。我們預期NAND Flash各業者為了持續改善獲利狀況，09年第2季在上游節制供給產出的成長速率，和下游的需求逐漸改善的條件下，5月份供貨商仍將會採取穩定合約價的 態勢來持續改善其獲利性。

Apple Introduces NAND iShortage

by John Paczkowski
Posted on February 19, 2009 at 7:07 AM PT

Print Buzz up! Share

The NAND flash memory supply may be headed for a bit of an early season drought thanks to Apple (AAPL). According to a new report from ThinkEquity Partners, Cupertino has bought up all of Samsung’s flash RAM inventory up to April 2009, presumably in preparation for an iPhone refresh. Samsung produces just over 40 percent of the world’s NAND Flash RAM, so we’re talking an awful lot of flash here–enough to cause part shortages and price increases across the entire RAM market. “Our checks indicate that Apple has started ordering for its iPhone refresh (iPhone and iPhone Nano), stifling the supply chain,” ThinkEquity analyst Vijay Rakesh told clients in a note. “We expect NAND spot and contract pricing to continue to trend up.”

Seems Apple’s not only reshaping the music and cellphone industries, but the memory industry as well.

DRAM、Flash 合約價喊漲

DRAM、Flash 合約價喊漲
【經濟日報╱記者周志恆／台北報導】

2009.04.15 03:16 am


記憶體大廠持續減產，加上市場需求逐漸增溫，DRAM、Flash（快閃記憶體）現貨價昨（14）日同步上漲，且均創下近月來波段新高；業界預期，近日將開出的合約價將受激勵上揚，有助減緩國內DRAM廠現金流出速度，模組廠的庫存回沖利益也持續攀升。

根據集邦科技交易網站上的最新報價，DRAM主流規格DDR2 1GB ett（有效測試顆粒）現貨價，每顆價格回升至1.06美元、DDR2 512MB ett顆粒價亦站回0.46美元；三星Flash記憶體32GB MLC（多層單元規格）價格也分別漲到8.71美元，創近月新高。

DRAM業者表示，國內外DRAM廠持續減產，市場先前庫存大減，且近期亞太地區市場需求強勁，通路商、系統商為免下半年旺季供貨時斷炊，近期逐漸增備庫存，帶動現貨行情走高。

在國內廠家，力晶（5346）、南科（2408）、華亞科（3474）、茂德（5387）目前仍處於減產狀態，力晶、茂德減產幅度超過五成，南科、華亞科估計減產約二成。

國外廠商方面，包括南韓三星（Samsung）與海力士（Hynix）、日本爾必達（Elpida）、美國美光（Micron）等，在不堪長期虧損、現金流出下，目前平均減產一到二成。

中國大陸的家電、PC下鄉政策，帶動亞太地區對記憶體需求轉強，激勵現貨價格近期向上走揚，系統廠也擴大備貨下單，帶動合約價格開始上調，海力士、南科等合約大廠，目前傳出下旬合約價仍有調升空間。

【2009/04/15 經濟日報】 @ http://udn.com/

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